A Trump presidency could scupper some of Barack Obama’s signature
achievements, including Obama care, climate change policy and the nuclear
deal with Iran. Democratic hopes of shaping the Supreme Court for a
generation would be dashed; a markedly more conservative court is now
likely.
Foreign policy could also undergo a dramatic shift.
Many
analysts caution that there is a big difference between campaign
promises and official policy trade renegotiations sometimes turn out
to be less substantive than advertised. Commitments on foreign policy
issues, such as moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem are
sometimes set aside.
But here are seven ways in which life could change under a President Donald Trump.
1. Trade
Mr
Trump has opposed the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership deal and
called for fundamental changes to the Nafta pact with Mexico and Canada.
Such policies appear to have boosted his appeal
throughout the rust belt of the Midwest, with huge consequences for the
election’s ultimate outcome. He has also threatened to impose punitive 45 per cent tariffs on goods from China, stoking fears of a trade war.
2. Foreign policy
Mr
Trump has said that Mr Obama’s deal with Iran, which seeks to prevent
the Islamic Republic from attaining nuclear weapons, would be dismantled
or at least restructured. While Mr Obama began his term by setting out a
vision of a world without nuclear weapons, Mr Trump has said he would
be open to both Japan and South Korea developing nuclear arsenals.
He has also questioned the US’s treaty commitments to Nato allies that
do not pay their own way while suggesting a much closer relationship
with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
3. Healthcare
Mr
Trump has signed up to the Republican pledge that Mr Obama’s signature
Obamacare reforms must be “released and replaced”. He has not set out a
comprehensive alternative but says he will encourage competition between
markets in different states.
4. Tax policy
Mr Trump has promised the biggest tax revolution since
Ronald Reagan, pledging to cut taxes across the board. He says no
American business would pay more than 15 per cent of their profits in
tax, compared with a current maximum of 35 per cent. The top rate of tax
would fall from 39.6 per cent as the Republican reduces the number of
tax brackets.
5. Supreme Court
Donald Trump’s stunning performance in Tuesday’s US presidential election sets the stage, if he ultimately prevails, for a series of radical policy reversals both at home and abroad.For many political activists in the US this could be the biggest consequence of the election. With the highest court
in the land currently split 4-4 between conservative and more liberal
judges, Hillary Clinton’s supporters had hoped that a ninth justice
chosen by a Democratic president would shift the balance, possibly for a
generation. Instead, Mr Trump faces relatively easy confirmation of his
pick by a Republican Senate and he may also have the opportunity to
replace some of the relatively elderly complement of liberal judges.
6. Climate change
Mr Trump has called global warming a hoax invented by China to make US
manufacturers uncompetitive and vowed to “cancel” the Paris climate
agreement, which built on a deal Mr Obama struck with China. He also
says he would stop all US payments for UN global warming programmes.
7. Immigration
This
is the issue that excited most passions in the campaign, both among Mr
Trump’s supporters and among Hispanic voters eager to prevent him from
taking the White House. Mrs Clinton and departing Mr Obama had backed
comprehensive reforms that would give illegal immigrants a chance at
full citizenship. Mr Trump has campaigned on his pledge to build a wall
on the Mexican border, called for a ban on Muslim immigration
and the deportation of 11m unauthorised immigrants. However, he has
subsequently made more ambiguous statements, promising instead “extreme
vetting” and declining to clarify his precise plans for undocumented
immigrants.
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